‘Little to lose’: Ukraine exacts retribution on Russian energy sites as Trump looms

When Ukraine launched a massive drone attack this week, deep into Russian territory, Moscow’s response was predictably swift and devastating.

In the early hours of Wednesday, the Russian military launched scores of missiles and drones at gas infrastructure and other energy sites in western Ukraine, forcing the war-ravaged country to introduce preventive power cuts in the depths of winter.

It was only the latest in a long list of Russian barrages aimed at crippling Ukraine’s already stricken energy grid. But the ferocity of the strikes suggested Kyiv’s earlier attack had hit a nerve.

The day before, Ukraine launched its biggest aerial assault on Russian territory since the start of the conflict, hitting targets in 12 different regions and more than 1,000 kilometres from its own border.

Targeting energy installations, the Ukrainian strikes triggered fires at numerous industrial sites, according to local officials. Gas tanks were hit in faraway Tatarstan and at least one petrol depot was set alight in Saratov region further south, where the local governor ordered all schools to hold classes online.

Moscow also accused Ukraine of damaging the key TurkStream pipeline that runs from Russia to Turkey, describing a purported drone strike on the Black Sea town of Gaikodzor as “energy terrorism”.

More than 80 attacks

Russian authorities said debris from intercepted Ukrainian drones caused “minor damage” to a gas compressor station linked to the TurkStream pipeline, the last conduit that continues to channel Russian gas to Europe, via Turkey.

Kyiv has not confirmed the attack on the 930-kilometre pipeline that runs beneath the Black Sea and notably supplies Balkan states with gas from Russia.

If the strike is indeed Ukraine’s doing, “it would mark the first attack of its kind by Kyiv”, said Huseyn Aliyev, a Ukraine war specialist at the University of Glasgow.

But it would not be the first time Ukraine sends its drones to bomb energy infrastructure on Russian territory.

In a report published last week, BBC Russia estimated that Kyiv had carried out more than 80 aerial attacks on the country’s energy grid last year.

The pace of those bombings dropped significantly in the second half of 2024, mainly because of pressure exerted by Washington on Kyiv, said Jeff Hawn, a Russian security expert at the London School of Economics.

“The US asked (Ukraine) to back off because it was causing volatility in the energy market, and because Putin started making noises again about nuclear retaliation, which freaked the US out,” Hawn explained.

‘Window of opportunity’

US pressure ceased to restrain Ukraine following Donald Trump’s election last November, which dramatically changed the calculus for officials in Kyiv.

Aliyev spoke of a “last window of opportunity” for Ukraine before America’s outgoing President Joe Biden leaves the White House, likely paving the way for a sharp drop in US support for Ukraine.

“Ukraine doesn’t have much left to lose at this point with Trump coming into the white House,” added Hawn. “So, they can just go ahead and take the gloves off with these targeted attacks.”

The end of Russian gas deliveries through Ukraine, which ceased altogether at the start of this year, is another factor behind Kyiv’s decision to ramp up its attacks, said the London-based analyst.

“Ukraine can now get away with targeting Russian energy infrastructure without being directly implicated when supply to Europe drops,” he explained.

Ukrainian authorities must also address their own population’s demands for retribution after years of Russian bombardments that have left millions to face the bitter winter cold without electricity or heating.

“Kyiv has to do something because Russia has been targeting its energy infrastructure, its power infrastructure and its population pretty much at will,” added Hawn.

Tanks running out of fuel?

Ukraine’s latest strikes are part of a wider effort to disrupt Russia’s colossal war effort by targeting both its logistical operations and its all-important energy exports.

“Russia’s army needs fuel, while its economy relies on oil and gas exports to continue financing the war,” noted Veronika Poniscjakova, an international security analyst at the University of Portsmouth.

According to the report by BBC Russia, Ukraine’s decision in early 2024 to start targeting Russian energy facilities stemmed in part from its “frustration” at the limited impact international sanctions have had on Moscow’s oil exports.

However, the experts interviewed by FRANCE 24 cautioned against overstating Kyiv’s ability to disable the Russian military, noting that drone attacks, however numerous, will not deprive Moscow’s tanks of fuel.

“More than 60% of Russian oil and gas storages are located beyond the Ural Mountains, in Siberia and the Far East,” well out of Ukraine’s reach, said Aliyev. So long as Russia has trains, it will be able to get fuel to the front line and meet the country’s energy needs.

Moreover, drone strikes alone are not sufficient to wipe out refineries and fuel depots. Their destructive capability does not match that of bombers pounding a site.

Drones can, however, force Russia into costly and time-consuming repairs that are further complicated by Western sanctions. As the BBC pointed out, “most targeted facilities use imported materials, and international sanctions make it difficult to get hold of spare parts.”

Russia’s oil and gas output has already slowed down in 2024, Russian energy expert Kirill Rodionov wrote on Telegram last week. Poniscjakova pointed to “signs that the Russian economy is in trouble”, citing reports of mass redundancies expected at energy giant Gazprom.

Further denting this crucial sector is part of a “long-term strategy” for Kyiv, suggests LSE’s Hawn. Right now, however, the symbolic value of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian soil is perhaps of greater importance.

While the Ukrainian army is on the backfoot along much of the front line, such brazen attacks “show it is still capable of inflicting painful blows on Russia”, said Aliyev, noting Kyiv’s eagerness to show strength before Trump returns to power.

If, as expected, the incoming administration in Washington pushes for an end to the war, Kyiv’s ability to strike at the heart of Russia could prove to be an important asset at the negotiating table.

This article was translated from the original in French by Benjamin Dodman.