Europe‘s scramble to rearm itself comes as much of the continent has grown more dependent on weapons supplies from the United States, according to data released Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
NATO countries in Europe have more than doubled their arms imports between 2020 and 2024, with the US supplying over 64% of the total – up from 52% over the previous five-year period.
Many countries have moved forward with their decisions to purchase US arms despite growing concern that America’s decades-long security guarantees to Europe are no longer reliable under US President Donald Trump.
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The figures reflect the challenges facing Europe as it scrambles to reduce its military dependence on Washington and take charge of its own security.
For more, FRANCE 24 speaks to defence expert Richard Aboulafia, managing director at consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory.
How reliant is Europe on the US in terms of intelligence, maintenance and software updates for its military equipment?
There are two forms of reliance: one is on capacities, which includes intelligence, and the other is on existing systems. The French case is a great way to distinguish between the two. France, like everyone else, is dependent on ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance). Yet it is unique in that it is largely independent from the US in terms of military equipment. Most other EU countries have some degree of US content in their inventories, and many are dependent on US-made F-35 fighter jets, the weakest link. It’s the most-connected fighter ever built, constantly communicating with offboard sensors, systems and networks. It’s also heavily dependent on regular software updates.
France’s defence industry is largely independent from the US. Consider the French jet Rafale, which is 100% French. I like to joke that the only thing that isn’t French about the Rafale is the coffee holder.
It’s almost like a spectrum of dependence. On one end, you have the French defence industry which has an impressive level of sovereignty. On the other end you have Denmark, which is unfortunate because of its diplomatic tensions with the US over Greenland’s future. The UK is closer to Denmark on the spectrum of dependence on the US because it went heavily under the control of US systems and capacities after Brexit.
Could the US immobilise European weapons systems with so-called ‘kill switches’?
There are two types of kill switches. One is the failure to provide spare parts or to update software, knowing that more modern weaponry constantly needs updates. The other kind of kill switch is to completely turn off a weapons system. It’s a question of changing a couple of lines of code. Just like with an iPhone, the provider can turn it off.
The situation we are in today is unprecedented, with the US turning its back on a major ally.
Ukrainian troops in the field reported yesterday that they came under instant attack from artillery and drones as soon as they activated their Starlink terminals. This implies the US is not only hurting Ukraine but helping the Russian side by possibly providing them with satellite imagery.
Many European countries are still ordering weapons from the US despite concerns about the transatlantic alliance. What are the challenges of scaling up the national and pan-European aerospace industries in Europe?
Scaling up a national industry is much more difficult than scaling up a globalised one. Ten times more F-35s were delivered in 2024 than Rafales (141 to 14). The F-35 uses production resources from over a dozen countries, including Germany’s Rheinmetall, which was added to the list of major suppliers this year.
France’s industry supply chain, in contrast, is vertically national – it can provide everything from nuclear weapons, to tanks, to nuclear submarines. But this impressive level of sovereignty may in fact be hindering France’s defence industry. In the case of the Rafale, it’s very much in demand, with over 170 aircraft – mostly for export – on backlog in 2023. Yet only 21 were delivered that year.
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Ursula von der Leyen’s 800-billion-euro defence fund presented last week can help speed up this process. Another solution is the development of pan-European systems like Eurofighter [Editor’s note: a fighter jet developed by the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain], which competes with Rafale.
Europeans also have one advantage over the US, in terms of manufacturing prowess, as reported in Foreign Policy. Europe collectively outproduces the US in steel, civil aircraft, vehicles and ships. This could give the EU the impetus to help Ukraine and begin domestic rearmament even as Donald Trump abandons Kyiv and threatens to leave NATO.
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